2014-12-15 10:37:11 辽宁华图公考问答 http://ln.huatu.com/wenda/ 文章来源：未知
The U.S. Federal Reserve's third round of bond-buying could ultimately rival the size of its first huge quantitative easing, which was widely seen as boosting growth.
The Fed initially disappointed some investors on Thursday when it said it would buy $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities each month. That is far less than the $75 billion a month it bought in its second round of bond-buying, or the more than $100 billion monthly tab for its first round.
But this time, the Fed has promised that "if the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially," it won't stop buying and could ramp up its spending further.
Depending how the Fed defines "substantially" and how long it takes to get there, it could end up buying bonds for several years, adding $1.7 trillion or more to its balance sheet, analysts say.
By comparison, the Fed's initial round of quantitative easing, first announced in November 2008 as the U.S. economy slumped into a deep recession, totaled $1.75 trillion .
"They've clearly committed to do what it takes to get unemployment down where they want it," said Pierre Ellis, an economist at New York-based Decision Economics. "There's no limit."
To Ellis, the "big bazooka" of open-ended bond purchases -- designed to boost the economy by lowering borrowing costs -- won't have much immediate impact because the economy's main headwind is uncertainty over fiscal policy and the outcome of a presidential election.
That's a view shared by several of the central bank's hawkish members.
But many other analysts say the Fed's latest program may exceed its predecessors in size, and more importantly, also pack the desired punch.
"We believe that with a strong commitment from the Fed, progress in Europe and the passing of the U.S. election, the U.S. economy will have a pretty decent shot at achieving above-trend growth in 2013," Julia Coronado, an economist at BNP Paribas, wrote in a note to investors.
Thursday's announcement could add another $1.2 trillion to $1.7 trillion to the Fed's balance sheet, she said.
TIED TO THE MAST
The Fed has kept short-term rates near zero since December 2008, and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has led the U.S. central bank into ever-newer territory to lower real rates further.
After the first round of bond-buying in 2008 and 2009, the Fed resorted in 2010 and 2011 to a second round to ward off deflation as the recovery faltered.
As he doubles down on quantitative easing, Bernanke's approach looks flexible enough to win support from both ends of the Fed spectrum - the doves who want more easing to bring down unemployment, and the hawks who worry that more easing could overheat the economy and spark inflation.
"Everybody likes tying it to economic conditions," said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Toronto-based Capital Economics. He estimates the program could eventually grow to between $960 billion to $1.44 trillion in size.
"The doves like this because they think the markets will think it's even bigger" than QE2, he said. At the same time, "it gives the hawks something, that if the economy picks up, they can get this stopped."
The Fed did not say how big it expects its latest program to be, but the clues are plain in its quarterly economic forecasts, also published Thursday.
Only three Fed policymakers expect the unemployment rate, now at 8.1 percent, to fall more than half a percentage point by the end of next year.
If the Fed sees 7 percent as substantial progress, the forecasts suggest continued bond buying through late 2014; if a bit lower, bond-buying could be needed through mid-2015, Ashworth said. Underscoring that interpretation, the Fed said Thursday it expects to keep rates low until at least then.
Before the crisis, unemployment was closer to 5 percent.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans has spent the last year arguing strongly for the Fed to tie monetary policy more closely to economic milestones by vowing to keep rates low until unemployment fell below 7 percent.
Doing so, he says, would avoid the temptation of backing off from easing at the first signs of economic strengthening. In a series of speeches in recent months, he has likened a strong Fed commitment to low rates to a modern-day Ulysses tied to the mast of his ship, prevented from responding to the siren call of premature monetary tightening.
While the Fed did not embrace Evans' 7-percent unemployment rate target, it did adopt his view that the Fed should hold fast to easy policy even after the recovery picks up speed -- a historic shift in policy.
DON'T STOP 'TIL YOU GET ENOUGH
Any eventual ceiling on the size of QE3 looks sky-high. The Fed may only buy Treasuries and agency-backed debt, and some Fed officials say it has bought nearly as much of the U.S. national debt as it can without impairing the market's function.
But with mortgage-backed securities, there is plenty room to run: economists estimate the size of that market at more than $7 trillion, although the Fed would need to avoid disrupting the market's function.
Michael Gapen, an economist at Barclays, sees QE3 topping out at $700 billion - slightly more than the second round of quantitative easing, but less than half the first.
The impact, he said, could be limited to boosting economic growth by a few tenths of a percentage point, although that could be enough to generate momentum.
"If you can keep the economy persistently above trend, then that has a self-reinforcing effect," he said.
Combined with the European Central Bank's vow to buy as many bonds as needed from euro zone states -- on condition they undertake reforms -- QE3 "has the potential to be very positive for the U.S. economy," Gapen said.
However, he said one real threat to the economy remains: a raft of tax increases and spending cuts that will automatically take effect at the end of the year unless Congress acts.
But if lawmakers successfully avoid the so-called fiscal cliff, the outcome for the economy could beat expectations and ultimately trim the size of QE3.
相关中文资料
美国联邦储备委员会(FED,美联储)第三轮购债计划的最终规模可能堪比第一轮.市场普遍认为第一轮量化宽松(QE)提振了经济成长.
最新购债计划的规模以及其体现出的政策根本转变,将决定美联储主席贝南克离任後留下什麽遗产.贝南克的任期在购债计划未完成时可能就已结束了.
美联储周四的决定最初让部分投资者很失望.美联储宣布每月购买400亿美元的抵押支持证券(MBS),这远远少於QE2每月购买的750亿美元,且更是少於QE1的每月逾1,000亿美元.
但这次,美联储承诺"如果就业市场前景没有明显改善",其将不会停止购债,且可能进一步加大支出.
分析师称,依据美联储对"明显"的定义,以及达到此状态需要的时间,美联储可能需要数年後才会结束购债行动,同时其资产负债表规模可能增加1.7万亿美元或更多.
相较而言,美联储第一轮量化宽松总规模为1.75万亿美元.美联储在2008年11月宣布这轮量化宽松,因当时美国经济陷入了深度衰退.
"他们(美联储)已很清楚的承诺,将尽其所能把失业率压低到他们想要的水准,"纽约Decision Economics分析师埃利斯(Pierre Ellis)说,"而且没有设定限制."
埃利斯认为,此次不设限制的购债计划将不会立即对经济产生很大的影响,因为经济面临的主要障碍是财政政策与总统大选结果的不确定性.购债计划旨在通过降低借款成本来提振经济.
美联储数位持强硬立场的委员也是这个看法.
周五美国公债遭到全面抛售,10年期和30年期公债收益率升至5月以来最高水准,因新的刺激措施激发股市买盘,减少对债券的需求,同时也因为投资者担心新刺激措施会引发通胀.
交易商说,市场对QE3中并未包括美国公债感到失望,这也造成了公债遭到抛售.
长期收益率的上升与购债计划的目标相悖,购债计划目的之一就是为了降低长期借款成本.
贝南克周四试图打压有关他意在推高通胀的忧虑,通胀率现在已经接近美联储2%的目标水平.他表示,量化宽松的目的是压低失业率.目前失业率在为8.1%,许多分析师认为这个数字远高於应有水平.
但他承认,美联储一段时间内可能会容忍通胀率上升.
"如果像我们在1月声明中谈到的那样,通胀高於目标水平,我们会采取均衡措施,"他在美联储新闻发布会宣布新政策後表示."我们会令通胀逐渐降回目标水平,但我们在采取行动时会将我们两个目标水平的偏差纳入考量."
许多分析师表示,美联新方案规模可能会超越此前,且更重要的是,能够达到理想的效果.
"我们认为美联储的强势承诺、欧洲方面的进展和美国大选过後,2013年美国经济将得到强劲提振,成长很有机会高於趋势水平,"法国巴黎银行分析师Julia Coronado在给投资者的报告中表示.
她表示,美联储上周四的声明可能令其资产负债表规模再增加1.2-1.7万亿(兆)美元.
和经济指标挂钩
美联储自2008年12月起即保持短期利率接近于零,现在贝南克带领美联储走进了更新的领域,以进一步降低实质利率.
贝南克加大对量化宽松的押注,似乎足以迎合美联储内部的两大阵营--温和派主张以更多量化宽松来压低失业率,但强硬派却担心更多量化宽松会让经济过热而引发通胀.
"每个人都喜欢把它和经济状况连在一起,"Capital Economics首席美国经济分析师Paul Ashworth说.他预估QE3的规模最终将达到9,600亿-1.44万亿美元.
"温和派喜欢QE3,是因为他们认为市场会以为QE3比QE2规模更大,"他说."同时,强硬派的人则是认为,如果经济升温,他们可以停止QE3."
美联储并未说最新计画的规模会是多少,但从其周四公布的季度经济预估可窥见一二.
只有三名美联储决策者认为目前8.1%的失业率会在明年底之前减少超过半个百分点.
Ashworth说,如果美联储认为失业率降到7%算是明显改善,那麽上述预估即暗示购债计画将持续至2014年底;如美联储认为失业率需降到比7%再低一些,则购债计画可能需持续至2015年中期.美联储周四称,近零利率至少维持到2015年中.
目标不至,努力不止
不论最终对第三轮量化宽松设定怎样的规模上限,都会显得极高.美联储可能只会买公债和机构债,一些联储官员表示,美联储已经在不影响市场运转的情况下尽可能买入公债.
而在抵押支持证券(MBS)方面,美联储有足够的施展空间:分析师预计MBS市场的规模超过7兆(万亿)美元,不过联储需要避免干扰市场的正常运转.
巴克莱分析师Michael Gapen认为,第三轮量化宽松规模将达到7,000亿美元--稍高於第二轮量化宽松,但不到第一轮规模的一半.
Gapen称,QE的效果或许仅限於将经济成长率提升零点几个百分点,但这已足以激发动能.
"如果可以让经济持续高於趋势水平,那麽就会获得自动加强的效果."他说.
再加上欧洲央行(ECB)承诺将视情况所需买入欧元区国家公债(条件是这些国家开展改革),Gapen认为第三轮量化宽松"有望对美国经济产生非常积极的作用."
不过他也表示,美国经济仍面临一个现实的威胁:假如国会不采取行动,一系列增税和支出削减方案将在年底自动生效.
但国会若能成功避免所谓的"财政悬崖",美国经济的表现将超出预期,最终将令第三轮量化宽松规模缩减.
贴心微信客服
贴心QQ客服
